The pendulum always swings, until it doesn't

US politics and culture are cyclical, alternating between values. On the large scale, the shifting social psychology of the American electorate is as predictable as a Carter following a Nixon. When we're in one of the swings of that pendulum, it feels like a permanent condition, and that is certainly the national feeling right now.

But if democracy continues to have any say in the matter — admittedly a big "if" at the moment — the status quo will grow tiresome to just enough voters in the middle to push the pendulum the other way for a while.

So many modifiers and conditionals in that sentence.

The Gilded Age of the late 1800s, with its ruthless, self-centered capitalism and extreme inequality, gave way to Progressive Era reforms, labor protections, and a new focus on social justice. Which gave way to the self-centered, individualistic Roaring Twenties, which crashed into the Great Depression and World War II, marked by an increase in collective sacrifice and shared purpose.

The stability and conformity of the 1950s gave way to national investments in compassion and equality — Medicare, Medicaid, the Voting Rights Act, and the Peace Corps. But the self-expression of hippies and antiwar protesters terrified conservatives into the arms of Nixon's law-and-order. Then Nixon's corruption and secrecy gave us squeaky-clean and wide-open Carter, whose election in 1976 reflected a desire for moral renewal, emphasizing human rights, personal humility, and energy conservation—hallmarks of an empathetic, service-oriented presidency.

After that palate cleanser, voters were looking again for a president from Central Casting. That was Reagan-Bush conservatism, followed by the social progressivism of Clinton. George W. Bush signaled a return to nationalism, military intervention, and security over empathy. then Obama capitalized on a desire for unity, compassion, and collective progress, embodied in the Affordable Care Act.

Just as Obama was a backlash against Bush, Trump was a backlash against and negation of Obama — and certainly the starkest contrast in presidential history.

And all along the way, every new administration had its scribblers declaring that the pendulum had been well and truly stilled.

In his 1969 book The Emerging Republican Majority, Nixon political strategist Kevin Phillips predicted that demographic and regional shifts would favor Republicans for decades, urging what would later be known as the notorious "Southern Strategy." As Bush's first term began in 2001, strategist Karl Rove was quoted saying he foresaw a permanent Republican majority.

When Obama was elected seven years later, Rove said, "I never said permanent. Durable." At which point Democratic political strategist Dylan Loewe wrote a book called Permanently Blue — just six years before Trump.

Trump’s first term was a high point of zero-sum, grievance-based politics. The pendulum’s reversal was visible in 2020: mass protest movements, pandemic-era mutual aid, and a push for racial justice coalesced in Joe Biden’s election. His early policies—including pandemic relief, child tax credits, and renewed investment in public infrastructure—suggest another turn toward empathy, responsibility, and rebuilding trust.

Enough of that, said just enough voters.

At this moment, voices as diverse as Republican pollster Frank Luntz and Senator Bernie Sanders have expressed opinions that Democrats may be headed for a very long exile.

A reliable pattern, so far

But the pendulum always swings, between retrenchment and compassion, fear and generosity. These patterns repeat across decades, suggesting a deep cultural rhythm: when one extreme dominates, the seeds of its opposite begin to grow. Every swing in one direction builds up the cultural and emotional pressure for a swing the other way, a reaction to the perceived excesses or failures of the preceding era. They are cultural as much as political, but presidential administrations serve as clear markers of these broader shifts.

Our national mood is as far from compassion and empathy as I've seen in my lifetime. Which means we are due for a natural return to compassion and empathy, marked by the re-emergence of compassion not just in government but at the grass roots — of environmental action as a moral duty to others, not just personal survival, and mutual aid groups, and mental health advocacy, and restorative justice, and humane policies in immigration and social welfare.

If history is any guide, the pendulum is already swinging. The very real concern at the moment is that history may not be as predictive as it has been, because the swing has never been as automatic as it appears.

The historical pendulum of US political and cultural life has long been powered by mechanisms that allow society to correct course: free elections, a vibrant press, judicial independence, institutional norms, and peaceful transfers of power. These mechanisms convert public sentiment into policy change and leadership turnover. But the rise of authoritarian governance threatens to break these mechanisms, potentially arresting or derailing the natural swing of the pendulum.

Authoritarianism locks in power

Authoritarian regimes are, by design, resistant to change. They do not aim to respond to public will but to shape, suppress, or ignore it. When leaders consolidate power through gerrymandering, voter suppression, propaganda, and judicial capture, they sever the feedback loop between public sentiment and political leadership. This short-circuits the cultural pendulum, freezing the system in an artificially extended phase of dominance.

Elections losing corrective power

In democratic systems, elections are a mechanism for recalibration. When one party overreaches, loses touch with voters, or becomes mired in scandal, voters historically respond by electing the opposition. But under authoritarian influence:

• Voting districts are manipulated to reduce competitiveness.
• Voter rolls are purged or access restricted.
• Election outcomes are delegitimized in advance or overturned after the fact.
• Loyalists are installed in key election oversight roles.

These strategies prevent even overwhelming shifts in public opinion from translating into political change, breaking a central gear of the pendulum.

A free press targeted and weakened

A free press helps amplify discontent, surface injustice, and introduce alternative visions for society. It's a key enabler of empathy-driven reform movements. But authoritarian governments frequently attack the press as "enemies of the people," consolidate media under state or allied control, or flood the public square with disinformation. In this environment, public sentiment is fragmented and confused rather than mobilized—stalling the pendulum’s swing.

Rule of law and institutional norms undermined

Historically, courts, Congress, and regulatory agencies have acted as stabilizers and correctives. When the executive overreaches, these institutions—ideally—push back. But in an authoritarian shift:

• Courts are packed with partisan loyalists
• Independent watchdogs are removed or defunded
• Legal processes are used punitively against opponents

This institutional corrosion eliminates the checks and balances that historically allow swings in governance to occur.

Fear and surveillance stifle cultural movements

Movements of empathy—civil rights, environmentalism, labor rights—rely on free assembly, protest, and public voice. Authoritarian regimes often criminalize protest, surveil activists, and incite violence against dissenters. The result is a chilling effect that silences opposition and prevents cultural momentum from becoming political reality.

Pendulums can be broken

Pendulum swings are not guaranteed. In regimes where dissent is muted, institutions are hollowed out, and elections are performative, the natural oscillation between competing values stops. Instead of correction, societies become trapped in a single mode—and it's rarely the compassionate one.

Unless democratic mechanisms are defended and restored, the US could find itself not in a phase awaiting reversal, but in a stalled system where the very structures that allow for political and cultural renewal have been dismantled. The pendulum doesn’t stop because people no longer want change—it stops because the machinery that turns it has been broken.