Blue Texas: A herald of the future?

Let's start with a history lesson: California used to be a red state.

During the second half of the twentieth century, California reliably voted for Republicans in presidential elections. California's voters backed Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon (three times), Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush.

Nowadays, of course, California is the bluest of blue states. No Republican presidential candidate has won the Golden State in over three decades.

What caused this dramatic shift?

A Texas-sized Democratic victory

The 2026 midterm elections were a referendum on Donald Trump and all the chaos and destruction he's unleashed over the last two years.

There were so many outrages, it's almost impossible to list them all. Among others, there's Elon Musk's decimation of the federal government; the savage cuts to Medicaid, food stamps, ACA subsidies, and other lifesaving programs; women and girls dying from abortion bans; bribery and corruption on an unprecedented scale; vindictive, politically directed sham prosecutions of his rivals; the over one thousand mentions of Trump's name in the Epstein files; a clown show of insults and threats toward Canada and other former allies, including Trump's unbelievable threats to seize Greenland by force; cozying up to genocidal, warmongering Russia over democratic Ukraine; ICE's terror tactics and murderous violence against undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and American citizens alike.

Perhaps most of all, there's the colossally stupid war with Iran launched at Israel's behest, which has pinched the arteries of the world's oil supply and caused spiraling inflation. On top of the Trump tariffs, this has caused prices to soar for nearly everything we buy, causing pain that's been felt by even the most disengaged voters.

Americans were mad as hell, and they voted like it. On election night, it was nothing less than a blue tsunami. Democrats romped to victory all across the country, taking control of both houses of Congress and a majority of gubernatorial seats. They won Senate seats outright in purple states like Ohio and Michigan and deep-red states like Kansas and South Carolina. Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi (!) are too close to call.

But of all the states where Democrats triumphed, the biggest shocker might be Texas.

Texas is the country's second-largest state and the archetypal red state. Demographers have long predicted that Texas could turn blue, given its large population of Latino voters. But for decades, that seemed like a mirage that progressives could chase forever without getting any closer. The last Democrat to hold any statewide office in Texas was in 1994.

Not anymore. In 2026, the blue wave finally arrived in Texas.

Democratic candidates went on a hot streak across the state. In the governor's race, Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott; in the Senate race, James Talarico triumphed over Ken Paxton; in the lieutenant governor's race, Vikki Goodwin defeated Dan Patrick. Democrats swept statewide judicial elections, winning ten out of ten. They won a slew of other statewide positions, including attorney general, comptroller, land commissioner, agriculture commissioner and railroad commissioner. They're on track to flip the Texas state House.

Whatever happens next, this was a victory of historic magnitude. The real question is, does it augur any long-term change for the future of politics in America?

It's true that this could be a temporary phenomenon. American electoral politics goes in cycles. It's often the case that during midterms, the party in power is complacent or demoralized, while the party out of power is fired up and highly motivated. This election certainly exhibited that pattern, perhaps on a larger than usual scale. Cynics might predict that these Democratic wins are temporary, and soon Texas will return to its more usual shade of deep red.

On the other hand, it's not impossible that this is the beginning of a lasting political realignment. Which brings us back to California.

How Republicans lost California

Nothing is new under the sun, and in the 1990s, as it is today, illegal immigration was a hot-button issue in American politics.

There were several high-profile scandals revolving around politicians who employed undocumented immigrants as household help. The passage of NAFTA decimated the agricultural industry in Mexico and forced thousands of Mexicans to emigrate to the U.S. in search of work, raising fears among prejudiced voters of Latino immigrants "stealing" jobs that rightfully belonged to Americans.

In 1994, pandering to these fears, California Republicans introduced Proposition 187. It would have made California the opposite of a sanctuary state, requiring local police to report to federal officials whenever they arrested anyone whom they suspected of being an illegal immigrant. It would have banned undocumented immigrants from receiving publicly funded health care, attending public school, or receiving any other public benefit.

Republicans thought this was a slam dunk, and at first, it seemed they were right. On November 9, 1994, California voters passed Prop 187 by an almost 60-to-40 majority.

But in the long run, it proved to be a Pyrrhic victory. In response to a lawsuit, a federal judge ruled that the law unconstitutionally infringed on the federal government's exclusive jurisdiction over immigration. California's Republican governor Pete Wilson appealed the ruling, but in 1999, Democrat Gray Davis was elected to the governorship and withdrew the appeal, killing the law.

More importantly, Prop 187 brought about a lasting shift in California's politics. The Latino demographic was a rapidly-growing minority, and they interpreted the passage of the bill as a racist attack aimed at them. Latino students all across the state walked out of school to march against the bill, in what were the largest protests in California history up to that point. Latinos in California moved decisively leftward and experienced a large-scale political awakening: organizing, registering to vote, running for office. Republicans have seen their fortunes crater in the state ever since.

Will Texas get California'd?

The question that Republicans need to contemplate is: Could history repeat itself? Will the same thing happen in Texas?

It's clear that there's a strong conservative faction among Latinos. They shifted toward Trump in 2024 in large numbers. But rather than trying to cement Latino support, Republicans have done everything possible to push them away: between ICE killings and lawlessness, concentration camps, mass deportation, and horrifying Nazi rhetoric which made it clear that their goal is to expel every non-white person from America.

Now that they've won power, Democrats have a golden window of opportunity to use it. They have to prove they can deliver on their promises, not just returning to the pre-Trump status quo, but making people's lives better in real and meaningful ways. They have to sharpen the contrast between themselves and the GOP, proving that they're the party that welcomes and accepts all Americans, whereas Republicans represent the last stand of white supremacy.

If they can do this—and if they don't make the same mistake the Republicans did by immediately taking Latino support for granted—then it's conceivable that voters who cast ballots for Democrats for the first time this year will be pleased with their choice, and will be willing to do so again. Just like in California, the red dam of Texas could crumble, and in future elections, it could unleash more blue waves.