The passing of the American era

For the past century and more, the world has sheltered under America's aegis. But the Pax Americana is drawing to an end.

The United States won two world wars, triumphed over communism, and wrote the rules of the post-Cold War global order. The US dollar is the planet's reserve currency, and the US military has been the dominant power in policing the world and stomping out conflicts. Whether you cheer or boo it, Uncle Sam's power and reach is undeniable.

But history teaches that no empire lasts forever. No matter how grand they are in their era of supremacy, all great powers fall, conquered by external enemies or weakened and frayed from internal infighting, like a fruit that rots on the branch.

After a long era of global dominance, America is going down the latter path.

Donald Trump's second presidency is bringing all the chaos and destruction he promised to unleash. He's pulling the US out of every international institution and treaty agreement it pledged to uphold. He's launching pointless trade wars, spurring other countries to impose retaliatory tariffs, in a war of mutually assured economic destruction. He's paralyzed the government, gutting the civil service and handing spending and policy decisions to erratic, unstable plutocrats. He's blustering about invading and subjugating neighboring countries.

Whatever happens in the next few years, the damage is done. America's erstwhile allies will conclude, rightly, that we're no longer a trustworthy partner. All our obligations and commitments are chaff that blows away on the wind, vulnerable to the whims of every election. On the intellectual front, America is lobotomizing itself: muzzling its scientists, threatening to prosecute doctors, cutting off funding for research and education. In a world of declining population, where countries that welcome immigrants are best-positioned to thrive, America is slamming that door shut. Xenophobic hostility is burning like a brushfire, and federal goon squads are being empowered to seize and deport as many people as possible, regardless of legal status.

The consequences won't be felt overnight. The US is still an economic colossus, accounting for almost a quarter of global GDP. Sheer momentum will keep us coasting for some time, perhaps for another generation. However, the seeds of long-term decline have been sown.

Talented foreign professionals, perceiving America's hostility toward immigrants, will choose friendlier countries to study, find jobs, start businesses, settle down and raise families. The center of gravity for scientific research will shift to more enlightened countries where conspiracy theorists and theocrats aren't holding the purse strings. Other countries will make pacts and alliances that exclude the US, preparing to fend for themselves without us.

Meanwhile, Americans will be sicker, poorer, more ignorant, and consumed with nonsensical culture-war grievances, even as climate change gnaws away at us. America won't cease to exist, but it will fade in influence and importance. It will no longer take an interest in world events, or will no longer be able to intervene.

The trillion-dollar question is this: When America has faded away, what will replace it as the dominant world power?

The powers on deck

China, still rising onto the global stage as it grows wealthier and more technologically advanced, is the obvious candidate.

But China has problems of its own.

It's facing demographic headwinds as its population ages. There are signs that its economic growth is hitting a ceiling. Also, many countries will be reluctant to tie themselves too tightly to Beijing, concluding rightly that its aid comes with strings attached. It's more likely to treat its allies as subordinates rather than equal partners.

The European Union is the other safe harbor. Wealthy, stable, multicultural, more democratic, less aggressively expansionist, the EU is the friendlier alternative to China. Europe has had its own problems with bureaucracy and stagnation, and until recently it's tended to be inward-looking. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has galvanized European nations into a stronger international orientation and more investment in defense. Long after the age of colonialism, Europe may enjoy a second act on the world stage.

A vacant throne

The third possibility is that no one will take the US's place. We may be headed for a multipolar world that has no reigning superpower, only regional alliances of countries looking out for their own interests. There will be more coalitions like BRICS, formed for mutual advantage rather than to uphold any higher set of ideals.

This scenario has its good points. The US will meddle less in the affairs of other nations, which it's sometimes done for the better, and frequently for the worse. Smaller countries will have more autonomy to choose their own course free from interference. They'll be out from under the thumb of great powers, which many denounce as imperialism.

On the other hand, there will be less help for poorer nations. In case of disaster, many will be entirely on their own. With fewer mechanisms for international cooperation, it would be harder for the world to deal with problems of global scope, like terrorism, piracy and climate change. The future would be more chaotic, more turbulent, and potentially more violent.