American religion continues its long fadeout

[Previous: The future is (still) less religious]

Religion is in decline all around the world. The empirical evidence proves this to be true. Even if preachers and proselytizers are loud and inescapable, even if they wield a disproportionate share of political influence, their numbers continue to shrink.

The numbers of atheists, agnostics and generally nonreligious people have been growing for years. As a share of the U.S. population, they now outnumber every single religious denomination. As of 2021, for the first time ever, less than half of Americans belong to a church, synagogue, mosque or other organized house of worship.

Even among those who still identify as religious, the intensity of their belief is declining. Increasingly fewer people say that religion is an important part of their lives.

There's a new poll on this topic, and it comes with a whopper of a title: Drop in U.S. Religiosity Among Largest in World.

The World Poll

Since 2005, Gallup's World Poll initiative has been interviewing people from every country on the planet. Among many other questions, the poll asks, "Is religion an important part of your daily life?"

For the past twenty years, majorities or supermajorities of the American public have said yes. However, over time, the number of people who affirmed this question slowly ticked downward. The trend became especially noticeable in the last decade. This year, it fell below the 50% mark for the first time. While the change from one year to the next is small, the cumulative effect is dramatic:

The 17-point drop in the percentage of U.S. adults who say religion is an important part of their daily life — from 66% in 2015 to 49% today — ranks among the largest Gallup has recorded in any country over any 10-year period since 2007.

This trend has been building for years. In 2019, it was already the case that less than half of Americans said religion was very important to them, while another quarter said it was "fairly" important. The slight differences in wording between that question and that one make it hard to compare apples to apples, but in both cases, there's a clear downward trend.

This isn't solely an American phenomenon. Other nations with a past history of strong belief, including Greece, Italy, Poland and Chile, have seen similarly large declines in religiosity over the same period. However, America still stands out for the suddenness and steepness of the drop, especially in a large and diverse country where conservative religions have been so tenacious.

The "opiate of the masses" theory

This isn't necessarily surprising. Arguably, it's something we should have expected. As Gallup notes, poorer countries tend to score higher on religiosity, whereas nearly all countries grow less religious as they become wealthier, more democratic, and more stable.

This line of evidence supports what we might call the "opiate of the masses" theory: the purpose of religion is to be a psychological bulwark in a chaotic world. It's a way for people to cope with dangers that are out of their control. By teaching—in spite of all available evidence—that the universe is ruled by a just and benevolent power, and promising the faithful a blissful afterlife where they'll be recompensed for every pain and injustice they suffer now, it offers a source of hope when hope is hard to find elsewhere.

However, the more people work together to make this world a better place, the more religion starts to seem unnecessary. When war, disease and hunger recede as everyday threats; when liberal democracy gives people a greater sense of control over their own destinies, rather than people feeling like they're helpless before the whims of fate; when people become more educated, more prosperous, and more able to look towards the future with optimism—then they have less need of the mental and emotional crutches of belief.

For a long time, the U.S. stood out. It was a developed, high-income country where religion retained a large degree of power and influence, both in the daily life of its citizens and in steering politics. However, with these results, the U.S. is steadily becoming less of an outlier. It's approaching the more-secular OECD average:

Across the 38 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries in 2024, a median of 36% of adults said religion is important to their daily lives. The gap between the U.S. and the median for these countries is now narrower than at any point in Gallup's trend.

What's fascinating is that this change has been in progress over the course of both Trump administrations—a period of fear and uncertainty to say the least, and moreover, a time where religious fundamentalists in office have been abusing their power to their utmost to reward churches that align with them ideologically. You might have expected belief to tick upward during this time. But it hasn't.

Assuming this trend continues, what would it mean for the future of religion in America?

It means a future where people are more likely not to attend church at all, or if they do attend, they'll go less often. Pews will be empty on Sundays, and collections will drop. Smaller churches will vanish, and larger ones will be increasingly cash-strapped.

It means a future where people are less likely to practice religious rituals. It will no longer be expected to have prayer or blessings at major public events.

It means a future where people are less likely to consult religious leaders or religious texts for advice or permission before making major life decisions. Religion will cease to be an element of childbirths, coming of age, marriages, and funerals. Its role in human culture will wane.

Most of all, it means a future where religion's political pull weakens. Religious leaders only have as much power and authority as other people are willing to grant them. As fewer and fewer people listen to them, it will matter less what they say. If this trend continues, it means a future where the voices of ignorance and intolerance will one day be echoing off empty pews.